This book will help you make better investment decisions in commodity markets. Find out which pundits and forecasters really know what they are talking about and track them. Understand the factors you can use to hold the 'experts' to account.

"A highly practical book that every investor and analyst needs to listened to several times....shows why investors need to do their own research, and not just follow the pundits" (Samir Madani, #OOTT and Tanker Trackers)

"With technology, geopolitics, and economics colliding to make commodities a challenging place to invest, Peter's timely book on the folly of commodity forecasting serves as a cautionary tale and a guide to preventing us from repeating the mistakes of the past." (Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners)

"Essential listening for investors and executives" (Paul Hodges, International eChem)

In Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits, and Profits in the Commodity Casino, Peter Sainsbury, economist, commodity investor and blogger at Materials Risk, shows how you can take back control.

In this book you'll learn:

• Why incentives tell you everything about financial market pundits
• What warning signs to watch out for
• Forecasting principles and practice
• How to be a more sophisticated consumer of financial media
• What you can do to avoid your business, industry, or country becoming a commodity "white elephant"
• What you can do to make better investments in commodities and other financial assets.

Peter Sainsbury is also the author of Commodities: 50 Things You Really Need to Know and The Winning Formula: Betting on F1.